{"id":342,"date":"2019-02-04T09:28:39","date_gmt":"2019-02-04T08:28:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/coolstorybro.fr\/?p=342"},"modified":"2019-03-04T09:29:11","modified_gmt":"2019-03-04T08:29:11","slug":"tous-les-modeles-sont-faux","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coolstorybro.fr\/en\/tous-les-modeles-sont-faux\/","title":{"rendered":"All models are wrong"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This little post presents in detail my favorite quote :<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>\"All models are wrong, some are useful.\"<\/em><br \/>\nGeorge Box<\/p>\n<p>Very often, when I present scientific work to someone, that person's first reflex will be to look for a counterexample. This is a very common reflex, one that can be counterproductive.<\/p>\n<p>Modeling the world exactly is impossible. It would be great: with an exact replica of the universe that we would play in a fast motion, we could make perfect predictions. But that's impossible.<\/p>\n<p>In science, researchers create many models of the world, which are approximations (<a href=\"https:\/\/xkcd.com\/263\/\">except for those<\/a>). Since we can't model the world exactly, these models are simplifications. And because they are simplifications, they <strong>cannot be<\/strong> perfect. A few examples among thousands :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The notion of social class (in economics and sociology) is a model. For example, the poverty level is often set at 60% or 40% of a country's median income. This does not mean that an individual who earns 41% of the median income is not poor. It's an arbitrarily set threshold - a model - but it shows, for example, that there are <a href=\"https:\/\/fr.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Taux_de_pauvret%C3%A9\">more poor people<\/a> in Germany than in France.<\/li>\n<li>Classical mechanics is a model that can accurately predict the trajectory of most bodies in our solar system (<a href=\"https:\/\/dournac.org\/sciences\/general_relativity\/node36.html\">except Mercury<\/a>). Even if it is imperfect, this model is very useful.<\/li>\n<li>Moore's Law in computer science predicted that the number of transistors on a processor would double every two years. Today it is no longer true, but this model has been useful for decades.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>We can find like this a multitude of models that are <em>approximately<\/em> true. But if one is aware of their limitations, then one also knows when they are useful. There is no point in systematically dismantling them.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This little post presents in detail my favorite quote :\n\"All models are wrong, but some are useful.\"\n- George Box\nVery often, when I present scientific work to someone<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":343,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[10],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v16.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blog Thibaut Ehlinger - Tous les mod\u00e8les sont faux<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Tous les mod\u00e8les sont faux - By Thibaut Ehlinger\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coolstorybro.fr\/en\/tous-les-modeles-sont-faux\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Blog Thibaut Ehlinger - 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